Use of prior knowledge to inform restoration projects in estuaries of GOM

July 28, 2017

# randomize author order
aut <- c('Marcus Beck', 'Kirsten Dorans', 'Jessica Renee Henkel', 'Kathryn Ireland', 'Ed Sherwood', 'Patricia Varela') %>% 
  sample %>% 
  paste(collapse = ', ')

By Kirsten Dorans, Kathryn Ireland, Ed Sherwood, Jessica Renee Henkel, Marcus Beck, Patricia Varela

Deepwater Horizon Settlement Agreement

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$10B in Potential Restoration Activities

Graphic: eli-ocean.org

Cumulative Effects of Restoration Activities?

  • Despite considerable investments in aquatic ecosystem restoration, consistent and comprehensive effectiveness evaluation continues to elude practitioners at geographic scales. (Diefenderfer et al. 2016)

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Tampa Bay - from gross to less gross

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Unique Problems -> Unique Solutions

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Bayesian Networks

  • Graphical modeling method based on influence diagrams.
  • Represents the cause and effect dependencies of a process.
  • Used to inform decision-making (Korb and Nicholson, 2004)

\[ P\left(H \mid E\right) = \frac{P\left(E \mid H\right) \cdot P\left(H \right)}{P \left(E\right)} \]

Cumulative Effects of Restoration Activities?

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Project goals

Can we use disparate data to prioritize future restoration projects aimed at improving water quality?

  • Synthesize data in space and time to evaluate cumulative effects of restoration projects

  • Develop a Bayesian Decision Network with empirical observations to evaluate likelihood of potential outcomes

  • Expand to other estuaries using a flexible framework

Overall Workflow

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WQ Monitoring in Tampa Bay

  • Rich WQ Monitoring Datatset (1974-)
  • Time series, monthly step - ~500 obs. per site
  • Available as an EXCEL spreadsheet ftp://ftp.epchc.org

TB Restoration Sites: Various Sources

  • “Softer” Restoration -> Local ordinances (e.g. ferilizer restrictions), Education, etc.
  • “Soft” Restoration -> Habitat Creation, Enhancement and Management/Protection Measures
  • “Hard” Restoration -> Stormwater BMPs, Point Source Reductions through Time, Regulations

TB Restoration Site Info: First Source

TB Restoration Site Info: Second Source

  • Tracking infrastructure improvements since ~1990s
  • Includes stormwater treatment, industrial/domestic point source controls
  • http://apdb.tbeptech.org

Overall Workflow

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Developing Restoration Dataset

  • Water Treatment Projects
    • Two Raw Datasets: http://apdb.tbeptech.org
    • Descriptions, names, location
    • dplyr: combine dataset (left_join), subset (filter) to subbasins of interest, find WT projects not listed as complete for further investigation (anti-join)
# A tibble: 5 x 19
  HeaderID                             Project_Name      Bay_Segment
     <int>                                    <chr>            <chr>
1        8 Delany Creek Wetland Restoration Project Hillsborough Bay
2       10           Cone Ranch Restoration Project Hillsborough Bay
3       11   29th or 30th Street Outfall/ Mckay Bay Hillsborough Bay
4       14          Palma Ceia Area Stormwater Pond Hillsborough Bay
5       15            North Tampa Pond Enlargements Hillsborough Bay
# ... with 16 more variables: Lead_Entity <chr>, Completion_Date <int>,
#   TP_Reduction_lbs_yr <dbl>, TN_Reduction_lbs_yr <dbl>,
#   TSS_Reduction_lbs_yr <int>, ProjectName <chr>,
#   OngoingInitiation <int>, DiscontinuedDate <int>, CompletionDate <int>,
#   ActualProjectCost <chr>, FundingSource <chr>,
#   ProjectDescriptionText <chr>, NonPointProject <int>,
#   PointProject <int>, ProjectLatitude <dbl>, ProjectLongitude <dbl>

Developing Restoration Dataset

  • Water Treatment Projects

    • Manual categorization of WT projects by technique = Categorized WT Projects
    • Broad classification: 5 unique WT project activities
[1] "Nonpoint_Source"       "Habitat_Enhancement"   "Habitat_Establishment"
[4] "Habitat_Protection"    "Point_Source"         

Developing Restoration Dataset

  • Water Treatment Projects
    • Finer classification: 26 unique WT project technologies
 [1] "BMP_Wetland_Treatment"  "Hydrologic_Restoration"
 [3] "BMP_Baffle_Box"         "BMP_Stormwater_Pond"   
 [5] "FW_Wetlands"            "BMP_Management"        
 [7] "Acquisition"            "BMP_On_Site"           
 [9] "PS_Treatment"           "Mangroves"             
[11] "Send_to_WWTP"           "BMP_Alum_Treatment"    
[13] "BMP_Treatment_Train"    "Uplands"               
[15] "Dredging"               "Education"             
[17] "Increase_Reuse"         "Management"            
[19] "Atmospheric_Deposition" "Protection_Management" 
[21] "Regulation"             "Exotic_Control"        
[23] "Saltmarsh"              "BMP_CDS_Unit"          
[25] "BMP_Agricultural"       "Street_Sweeping"       

Developing Restoration Dataset

  • Habitat Restoration Projects
[1] "Habitat_Enhancement"   "Habitat_Establishment" "Habitat_Protection"   

Developing Restoration Dataset

  • Habitat Restoration Projects
    • Finer classification: 9 unique habitat restoration technologies
[1] "Hydrologic_Restoration" "Exotic_Control"        
[3] "FW_Wetlands"            "Mangroves"             
[5] "Saltmarsh"              "Protection_Management" 
[7] "Seagrass_Habitat"       "Oyster_Habitat"        
[9] "Acquisition"           

Combined Restoration Data

  • Restoration sites in Tampa Bay, watershed
    • Habitat Establishment
    • Habitat Enhancement
    • Habitat Protection
    • Stormwater Controls
    • Point Source Controls
  • 571 projects, 1971 - 2016

Cumulative Effects of Restoration Activities?

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Cumulative Effects of Restoration Activities?

A simple model (aka minimum viable product)

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Overall Workflow

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Data plyring

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  • Can we identify a change in water quality from restoration?
  • Can we plyr the data as input to a BN?

Data plyring

WQ and restoration sites

  • Can we identify a change in water quality from restoration?
  • Can we plyr the data as input to a BN?

Data plyring

WQ and restoration sites

  • Can we identify a change in water quality from restoration?
  • Can we plyr the data as input to a BN?
  • Consider an effect of restoration site type?

Data plyring

WQ and restoration sites

  • Can we identify a change in water quality from restoration?
  • Can we plyr the data as input to a BN?
  • Consider an effect of restoration site type?
  • Consider distance of sites from water quality stations?

Data plyring

WQ and restoration sites

  • Can we identify a change in water quality from restoration?
  • Can we plyr the data as input to a BN?
  • Consider an effect of restoration site type?
  • Consider distance of sites from water quality stations?
  • Consider a cumulative effect?

Data plyring

WQ and restoration sites: Spatial match

Data plyring

WQ and restoration sites: Spatial match

WQ and restoration sites: Temporal match

Data plyring

WQ and restoration sites: Spatial match

WQ and restoration sites: Temporal match, before/after

Data plyring

WQ and restoration sites: Spatial match

WQ and restoration sites: Temporal match, before/after, slice

Data plyring

What do the data look like? For one water quality station matched to many restoration sites…

WQ and restoration sites: Temporal match, before/after, slice

# A tibble: 4 x 3
# Groups:   stat [1]
   stat     cmb     cval
  <int>   <chr>    <dbl>
1     7 hab_aft 8.255185
2     7 hab_bef 8.350187
3     7 wtr_aft 8.053273
4     7 wtr_bef 8.129733

Data plyring

What do the data look like? For many water quality stations matched to many restoration sites…

# A tibble: 20 x 4
    stat     hab     wtr      cval
   <int>  <fctr>  <fctr>     <dbl>
 1     6 hab_aft wtr_aft  8.903273
 2     6 hab_aft wtr_bef 11.720206
 3     6 hab_bef wtr_aft 11.902951
 4     6 hab_bef wtr_bef 14.719883
 5     7 hab_aft wtr_aft  8.154229
 6     7 hab_aft wtr_bef  8.192459
 7     7 hab_bef wtr_aft  8.201730
 8     7 hab_bef wtr_bef  8.239960
 9     8 hab_aft wtr_aft 19.867100
10     8 hab_aft wtr_bef 17.444274
11     8 hab_bef wtr_aft 17.331973
12     8 hab_bef wtr_bef 14.909147
13     9 hab_aft wtr_aft  9.030021
14     9 hab_aft wtr_bef  8.621069
15     9 hab_bef wtr_aft  8.398558
16     9 hab_bef wtr_bef  7.989606
17    11 hab_aft wtr_aft  6.576058
18    11 hab_aft wtr_bef  6.727664
19    11 hab_bef wtr_aft  8.112902
20    11 hab_bef wtr_bef  8.264508

Data plyring

What do the data look like? For many water quality stations matched to many restoration sites…

Data plyring

What do the data look like? For many water quality stations matched to many restoration sites…

Data plyring

What do the data look like? For many water quality stations matched to many restoration sites…

Data plyring

  • In other words, what is the conditional distribution of chlorophyll given restoration type and before/after effect?

  • Similar to a two-way ANOVA…

\[ Chl \sim\ f\left(Water \space\ treatment \times Habitat \space\ restoration\right) \]

  • This can be extrapolated to additional 'treatments', or a three-way ANOVA

\[ Chl \sim\ f\left(Water \space\ treatment \times Habitat \space\ restoration \times Salinity \right) \]

Data plyring

Conditional distributions on two-levels:

Data plyring

Conditional distributions on three-levels:

Data plyring

Conditional distributions on three-levels:

Data plyring

Conditional distributions on three-levels:

Overall Workflow

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Bayesian Network

  • Water quality (chlorophyll) responds to restoration with varying effects by salinity

  • In the frequentist framework - mean chlorophyll varies given treatment

\[ Chl \sim\ f\left(Water \space\ treatment \times Habitat \space\ restoration \times Salinity \right) \]

  • In the Bayesian framework - probability of an event depends on occurrence of other events

\[ P\left(Chl \mid Event\right) = \frac{P\left(Event \mid Chl\right) \cdot P\left(Chl \right)}{P \left(Event\right)} \]

Bayesian Network

What is the probability of low/medium/high chlorophyll given other events?

  • Do water quality conditions differ by restoration type?
  • Does it differ by salinity as a natural covariate?
  • Is the change in agreement with expectation?

BN lets us evaluate likelihood of potential outcomes given conditional distributions

Bayesian Network

Bayesian Network

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Results Small Model

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Results Small Model

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Results Small Model

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Results Small Model

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Results Small Model

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Overall Workflow

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Guiding Restoration Decision Making?

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Guiding Restoration Decision Making?

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Guiding Restoration Decision Making?

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Guiding Restoration Decision Making?

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Guiding Restoration Decision Making?

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Guiding Restoration Decision Making?

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Lessons Learned

Low-tech Data Synthesis

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Supplemental